Every NFL season fans and analysts breakdown the preseason strength of schedule. We dissect it trying to figure out the games our favorite teams will win and predict the likelihood of a successful season. Do teams who play a weak schedule according to the previous year’s results have a higher success rate than teams who don’t? Teams change from year to year and we have seen bottom dwellers flip in one season and Super Bowl participants not even make the playoffs. Would you rather see a schedule full of teams who missed out on the playoffs and not named New England or Green Bay? Does avoiding the top teams from a season before guarantee success during the current season? These questions I wanted to answer and also follow this through the upcoming 2012 season. I went back and searched the strength of schedules heading into the 2008 through 2011 seasons and documented how teams with the top ten hardest schedules and top ten easiest schedules (all teams tied at the 10th spot were included) did during the regular season and playoffs. I looked at if these teams made the playoffs, won their division or made a Super Bowl appearance, here is what I found:

*Reminder – if there are more than 10 teams in a category, there was a tie at the 10 spot.

2011 Season

Most difficult schedule based on opponents’ 2010 record

-          3  of the 12 made the playoffs

-          2 of those 3 were division winners

-          0 teams made the Super Bowl

Easiest schedule based on opponents’ 2010 record

-          4 of the 10 made the playoffs

-          2 of those 4 were division winners

-          0 made the Super Bowl

2010 Season

Most difficult schedule based on opponents’ 2009 record

-          3 of the 11 made the playoffs

-          All 3 were division winners

-          0 made the Super Bowl

Easiest schedule based on opponents’ 2009 record

-          4 of the 11 made the playoffs

-          1 of those 4 won the division

-          1 made and won the Super Bowl (Packers)

2009 Season

Most difficult schedule based on opponents’ 2008 record

-          4 of the 10 made the playoffs

-          2 of those 4 were a division winners

-          1 made and won the Super Bowl (Saints)

Easiest schedule based on opponents’ 2008 record

-          5 of the 11 made the playoffs

-          3 of 5 were division winners

-          0 made the Super Bowl

2008 Season

Most difficult schedule based on opponents’ 2007 record

-          5 of the 10 made playoffs

-          3 of those 5 were division winners

-          1 made and won the Super Bowl (Steelers)

Easiest schedule based on opponents’ 2007 record

-          5 of the 12 made the playoffs

-          4 of those 5 were division winners

-          1 made and lost in the Super Bowl (Cardinals)

2008 through 2011 Combined Results

Most Difficult

-          15 out of 43 made playoffs (35%)

-          10 of 15 won division titles (67%)

-          2 of the 4 years the SB winner came from this group

Easiest

-          18 of 44 made playoffs (41%)

-          10 of 18 won the division (56%)

-          1 super bowl winner and 1 loser came from this group

In conclusion, to me the preseason strength of schedule didn’t mean much between the years of 2008-2011. Only a small percentage of teams make the playoffs more frequent with an easier schedule. The same amount of division winners (more by percentage) and Super Bowl champions came from the group with the more difficult schedule.  Understandably this is only a four-year sample and might not be big enough to draw a concrete conclusion but it is a starting point for what I want to document going forward. To me personally I don’t know if this preseason strength of schedule stat will lead to any success in the NFL but one way I do see taking advantage of this is the public perception of teams heading into the season. Sportsbooks are forced to use last season’s public perception when creating lines for early games in the current season and finding line value based on this could be beneficial.

I am always up for stat discussions and would like to hear what other preseason stats people use when preparing for the NFL season, or could preseason sos be used for any other purpose. Below is this year’s strength of schedule found at ESPN.com:

2012 NFL Strength of Schedule By Team

A look at the most difficult schedules in 2012 (based on opponents’ 2011 record).

Rank	Team	Combined W-L Record	Winning  Pct.	Games  vs. Quality Opp.**
1	N.Y. Giants*	140-116	.547	7
2	Denver*	139-117	.543	7
3	Cleveland	135-121	.527	7
4	St. Louis	134-122	.523	5
4	Baltimore*	134-122	.523	7
6	San Diego	133-123	.520	6
7	Philadelphia	132-124	.516	8
8	Minnesota	131-125	.512	7
8	Arizona	131-125	.512	6
10	Carolina	130-126	.508	5
11	Seattle	129-127	.504	5
11	Dallas	129-127	.504	7
11	New Orleans*	129-127	.504	5
14	Jacksonville	128-128	.500	8
14	Cincinnati*	128-128	.500	5
14	Pittsburgh*	128-128	.500	6
14	Indianapolis	128-128	.500	7
18	Oakland	127-129	.496	5
18	Miami	127-129	.496	6
20	N.Y. Jets	126-130	.492	6
20	Kansas City	126-130	.492	5
20	Chicago	126-130	.492	7
20	Detroit*	126-130	.492	6
24	Washington	125-131	.488	7
24	Atlanta*	125-131	.488	4
24	San Francisco*	125-131	.488	5
27	Tampa Bay	124-132	.484	5
28	Tennessee	123-133	.480	6
29	Houston*	121-135	.473	6
29	Buffalo	121-135	.473	5
31	Green Bay*	120-136	.469	7
32	New England*	116-140	.453	4
* 2011 playoff team. ** Quality opponents are teams that had at least nine wins in 2011.